It’s January, which means it is the time of year for annual predictions. Everyone is doing it because we need predictions to set goals. ECP Utility is now in the prediction business. In a nutshell, 2012 will bring more Smart and less Government.
How does more Smart and less Government effect the power industry? Let’s take a look at what Smart Power and Less Governmental Support means. Keeping the concept to our own power industry, what will be on the horizon in 2012?
First: More Smart Grid. Much more, as a matter of fact. The Smart Grid ball is rolling down the hill, and stopping it will take a tremendous road block. At this time in the Electric Power Industry, there is no downhill force greater than the smart grid momentum. Its growth will be slower now that the government cash flow has been cut down. Everything about power is going to get smarter, and there is no stopping this momentum.
This leads to a second prediction: Everything’s going to get smarter, but consumers are still going to fight the change. In the end, humans don’t like change. It’s one of those things we hate most in life. Change is scary, what will be the unforeseen results of the change? Smart Meters---which will continue to be a tough sell for many in 2012. Customer communication and education will help, but only time will make things more accepted, and become the new norm. Average consumers cannot be expected to understand or grasp the whole concept. Over time it will become the new normal, and as such Smart Meters will become the standard and anything less will not be accepted. So, Electric Utilities will have to practice a little patience.
The third prediction: Electric Utilities will also have to be open to change just as they ask consumers to be. Utilities have always had a tendency to do things as they have always done them, they resist change like all of us. An example is the ECP Smart Anchor Monitor (SAM). This technology is designed to monitor and record the installation of guy wire anchors. From Power Installed Anchors, Transmission Line Guy Anchors to Transmission Tower Anchors, the ECP SAM give up to the second data on anchor torque, speed of installation, anchor angle and depth and then records this information so engineers have verification that their guidelines were met or exceeded.
The ECP Smart Anchor Monitor also gives the Linemen immediate information during the installation which will allow them to make adjustments and decisions without guesswork. This helps keep projects on-time and on budget be eliminating guesswork and human error. Much like Smart Meters the Smart Anchor Monitors information is best used immediately, not after it’s too late to make changes.
Contrary to many other predictions the fourth prediction: Electric vehicles (EVs) will be put on a backburner. EV’s are not selling, the initial momentum has been lost and Hybrid Vehicles have taken over the momentum for the near future. Just ask Chevrolet how sales on the Volt are doing. They missed their projections by over 30%. These numbers will not excite Chevrolet or other manufacturers to jump in and invest the necessary marketing to create a demand for required infrastructure that is necessary for EV’s.
This leads to the final prediction for 2012, which Governmental Support: The government is going to take a step back in research, support and funding for non-traditional energy efforts. The Fed’s are a bit gun shy after the Solyndra and Fisker Automotive debacles. All actions will be gone over with a fine-tooth comb. During an election year with an economy that is struggling, misspending is amplified and cannot be risked. This will make the feds a bit cautious in any approach to shore up new and unproven forms of energy from solar to EVs. 2012 will be a time of investment contraction, which doesn’t bode well for the renewables side of the power equation since they truly need the support. But, they’re new, and not a sure thing.
To summarize: The Smart Grid has momentum, Smart Meters will happen in a big way, Utilities will implement Smart Technology in their own daily processes – like the ECP Smart Anchor Monitor and the Federal Government will be tighter with our money. All of these things have the momentum and will become the new normal in 2012.